Poll: Daschle getting narrow nod over Thune

By Denise Ross, Journal Staff Writer | Friday, April 02, 2004

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Three-term incumbent Sen. Tom Daschle, D-S.D., holds a 5.6-point lead over his challenger, former three-term Republican Congressman John Thune, seven months before the election date, a poll shows.

Of 501 likely voters polled March 27 and 28, 48.2 percent said they were likely to vote for Daschle, and 42.6 percent said they were likely to vote for Thune. Nearly 8 percent were undecided, and 1 percent said they would not vote for either Daschle or Thune.

Thune's campaign manager, Dick Wadhams, said he is "ecstatic" at the numbers, mostly because Daschle polled below 50 percent. Daschle's deputy campaign manager, Dan Pfeiffer, described the numbers as "a very good place for Sen. Daschle to start this campaign."

The poll was conducted last weekend by Zogby International of Utica, N.Y., for South Dakota media outlets, including the Rapid City Journal. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percent.

Daschle and Thune will face each other in the 2004 general election Nov. 2.

Daschle performed best among Democrats, getting 83.3 percent of their support, and did well among independents, at 57.6 percent. The Senate minority leader got support from 21.7 percent of Republicans polled.

Thune received support from 71 percent of Republicans, 21.9 percent of independents and 10.5 percent of Democrats.

Voters gave the two candidates nearly equal "favorable" ratings, with Thune at 67 percent and Daschle at 66 percent. Thune's unfavorable rating is 24 percent, Daschle's 30 percent.

With 61.2 percent rating Daschle's job performance either "excellent" or "good," 48.8 percent said he deserves to be re-elected. Of those polled, 46.2 percent said it is time for someone new to represent South Dakota in the U.S. Senate. About 5 percent were undecided.

Daschle gets his support from both low- and high- income households, and Thune stands firm with middle- income voters who earn between $35,000 and $75,000 per household.

Similarly, Thune finds solid footing with voters between the ages of 30 to 49, with 46.9 percent support compared to Daschle's 41.3 percent. The two are nearly even among voters older than 65, with Daschle leading at 47 percent and Thune close behind at 45 percent.

Daschle is strongest among voters younger than 29, with 59.5 percent support, and with those ages 50 to 64, with 55.2 percent support. Thune gets 28.9 percent from those under 29 and 38.7 percent from the 50 to 64 age group.

Voters between the ages of 18 and 24 are evenly split, giving Daschle 38.1 percent support and Thune 38.3 percent.

Thune said the income-group figures don't track with his past polling, but the age ranges are right on target.

"Historically, my strongest support and base has always been among the working families," Thune said, saying that could explain the income range results, too.

Daschle's lead does not daunt Thune, who fell 524 votes short of defeating one-term incumbent Sen. Tim Johnson, D-S.D., in 2002.

Daschle's 48 percent showing is "a troubling development" for the Democrat's campaign, Thune said.

"For the amount of money they've invested already, to not even get to 50 percent when you are the sitting incumbent and minority leader, that gives us a whole lot of room for optimism," Thune said. "He is essentially where he was in August."

For months, Daschle's campaign has run a series of positive television ads that have not boosted his numbers, Thune said, and Thune has not launched ads and doesn't have plans to in the near future.

"People have accepted as much positive information as they can feed them, and it's still not getting them where they need be. That is very significant," Thune said, saying his 43 percent showing will rise. "There's a vacuum which Daschle is filling. When we get on TV, those numbers will start coming back. We have yet to really engage."

Thune said it's likely his campaign won't begin advertising until after the special House election on June 1.

"That election is going to occupy most of the political oxygen in the state for the next 60 days," Thune said.

Thune and Wadhams estimate Daschle has spent $6 million on his campaign since deciding in early 2003 to run for the Senate. Pfeiffer said that number is inflated and measures all of Daschle's political spending since 1998. The Daschle campaign spent $3.2 million in 2003, Pfeiffer said, but he did not have figures for the first three months of 2004.

"A lot of that went to very strategic investments in things we will need later down the line to build our grassroots organization and building a donor base," Pfeiffer said.

Pfeiffer disputes Thune's analysis, saying Daschle is polling a strong 10 percent above the state's 38 percent rate of Democratic voter registration.

"Anytime a Democrat in South Dakota is leading a popular, well-known Republican by 5 points, that's very good news," Pfeiffer said. "John Thune and his allies spent upwards of $15 million in 2002 selling his image to voters. After $15 million, six years in Congress and five visits from President Bush, you have to wonder what John Thune could possibly do over the next seven months to change the dynamics of this election. There isn't much the voters don't know about him."

Also, Pfeiffer cites Daschle's 21 percent support among Republicans as bad news for Thune.

"In every poll I've seen, Sen. Daschle has received support from one in five Republicans. The math of it is, essentially, that John Thune cannot win this race as long as Sen. Daschle is receiving that level of Republican support," Pfeiffer said. "No electorate has ever known more about the incumbent and the challenger than in this case. People are making more of an educated choice than in other elections."

Black Hills State University political-science professor Tim Martinez said he agrees that voters know both candidates well. The job for the candidates, he said, will be to convince voters which one is better at looking after South Dakota's interests on Capitol Hill.

"(The numbers) would seem to indicate that Daschle's message is not extremely effective, but maybe he's being as effective as he can and winning over the people that he can. He has to just hold on to them," Martinez said. "It's up to Thune to convince anyone otherwise. The burden will be on him, and he's going to have to do a lot of hard campaigning."

Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics, said there's really only one way to read the poll: Daschle is leading.

"It's interesting that it's always good news for the candidate who's behind in the polls. Trust me, it's always better to be leading," Sabato said.

But Sabato said he does expect Thune to catch up. Both he and Thune predict a dead heat on election day.

"This will be another election probably decided by 500 votes," Sabato said. "You'd have to be nuts to put a nickel down on this one."

Poll respondent Francis Gould, 75, of Yankton, said he intends to vote for Thune because his politics better match the Republican retiree's views.

"I think Daschle forgot what he's there for," Gould said. "I think Thune will do a better job and think about the people here rather than those back in Washington."

Patricia Hill, 50, of Pierre, said she likes Daschle. Hill, who is recuperating from cancer, likes Daschle's ads.

"I think he's doing a good job," Hill said. "I thought (his ad) sounded real nice."

Contact Denise Ross at 394-8438 or denise.ross@rapidcityjournal.com