Poll gives Herseth lead in House race

By Bill Harlan, Journal Staff Writer | Thursday, September 30, 2004

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Democratic Rep. Stephanie Herseth leads Republican challenger Larry Diedrich 51.1 percent to 42.6 percent in an independent statewide poll conducted for the Rapid City Journal, KOTA-TV and other state media outlets.

Herseth's 8.5 percent lead is well above the poll's 4.5 percent margin of error, but she held a 9 point lead in a similar poll taken slightly more than 10 days before the June 1 special election.

Diedrich closed that gap, though Herseth held on to win, 51 percent to 49 percent. Now, she is running as South Dakota's lone member of the House of Representatives.

Diedrich has 33 days left to close the current gap, but only 6.3 percent of those polled said they were undecided.

Zogby International of Utica, N.Y., conducted the scientific poll Friday through Tuesday. KSFY-TV of Sioux Falls, the Mitchell Daily Republic and the Watertown Public Opinion also participated.

Pollsters interviewed 500 likely voters from throughout the state.

The poll results are similar to an unrelated poll taken earlier last week by other South Dakota media outlets. The Sioux Falls Argus Leader- KELO-TV poll of 800 likely voters showed Herseth leading by 7 points. That poll also showed Libertarian candidate Terry Begay of Volin with support of 1 percent of registered voters. The Zogby poll did not include Begay.

Herseth led Diedrich throughout the state, but her 48.1 percent edge over Diedrich's 46.9 percent in West River was well within the margin of error.

In East River, Herseth led 52 percent to 41.3 percent, and in northeastern South Dakota, she led 51.4 percent to 41.3 percent.

The poll's margin of error increases within demographic subgroups. Keeping that warning in mind, however, the survey does suggest where the two candidates find support.

Herseth, for example, led among voters earning less than $50,000 a year, and Diedrich led among those earning more than that.

Here are some results broken down by income ranges:

-- Diedrich led 50.2 percent to 39 percent among those earning $50,000 to $75,000 a year. His lead narrowed to 49.6 percent to 47.5 percent among voters earning more than $75,000.

-- Herseth narrowly led, 46.9 percent to 45.5 percent, among voters in the $35,000 to $50,0000 range.

-- Her lead jumped to 67.9 percent to 27 percent in the $25,000 to $35,000 range but dropped to 48.9 percent to 44.9 percent in the $15,000 to $25,000 range.

-- Herseth led 75 percent to 22 percent among likely voters earning less than $15,000 a year.

Herseth led among likely voters of both genders: 50.4 percent to 44.1 percent among men and 51.7 to 41.2 among women.

Diedrich, however, held big leads over Herseth among the youngest voters. He led 50.6 percent to 39.8 percent among the 18 to 29 crowd and 59 percent to 41 percent in the 18 to 24 group. Diedrich led 47.7 percent to 41.2 percent among voters 25 to 34.

Herseth, however, led all other age groups, including seniors, who tend to vote in higher percentages than young voters.

The American Indian vote in South Dakota is especially important in close elections, but the Zogby telephone poll reached only 16 likely Indian voters who had made up their minds on the House race. (Herseth was leading 14-2.)

Both candidates held strong leads among the party faithful, but Herseth's lead was stronger — 85.6 percent of Democrats compared to Diedrich's 70.8 percent support among Republicans.

Herseth even won the support of 24.9 percent of Republicans polled, compared to only 7.5 percent of Democrats who supported Diedrich.

The Zogby poll was weighted to reflect regional population densities in South Dakota and to mirror statewide party registration.

Voters in South Dakota break down into the following approximate percentages: 49 percent Republican, 33 percent Democrat, 17.5 percent independent and 0.5 percent Libertarian.

Contact Bill Harlan at 394-8424 or at bill.harlan@rapidcityjournal.com