Senate race near dead heat

By Bill Harlan, Journal Staff Writer | Friday, October 01, 2004

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With slightly more than a month until the election, the South Dakota race for the U.S. Senate was almost a dead heat, according to an independent statewide poll sponsored by the Rapid City Journal, KOTA-TV and other state media outlets.

Senate Democratic Leader Tom Daschle led Republican challenger John Thune 47.8 percent to 45.5 percent, but Daschle's 2.3 percent lead is well within the poll's 4.5 percent margin of error.

Six percent were undecided.

Democrat Delphia Williams, 82, of Rapid City and Republican Milt Herrick, 71, of Spearfish were among those polled, but they are not among the undecideds.

"I just can't stand Bush, and Tom's done a good job," Williams said. She is retired, and Social Security and the economy are most important to her. "We were told that was our retirement, and now the president wants to privatize it. I'm against that."

Herrick, a Korean War veteran who spent 30 years in broadcasting, said, "John is one of the most sincere, incorruptible people I've ever met." Herrick's "No. 1 issue" is "America's security." He associates Daschle with the Clinton administration, which he says diminished the military and "gutted intelligence."

Williams and Herrick are likely voters unlikely to change their minds, but the poll shows there is room for movement in the Daschle-Thune race.

Zogby International of Utica, N.Y., conducted the survey over the course of five days, Sept. 24-28. Pollsters interviewed 500 people who described themselves as likely voters. (KSFY-TV of Sioux Falls, the Mitchell Daily Republic and the Watertown Public Opinion also were sponsors.)

John Zogby, president of the polling company, said Thursday that the South Dakota Senate race could be decided on the state's Indian reservations. "The Indian vote in South Dakota is larger than almost anywhere else, and given the closeness of the race, that could put one candidate over the top," he said.

The Zogby poll, however, contacted only 17 Indian voters. Fourteen of them picked Daschle, but the sample is too small to be significant, Zogby said.

Accurate polling data have always been difficult to get among Indian voters in South Dakota, especially on the state's nine reservations, where many voters do not have telephones. Still, Democrats traditionally do well among Indian voters statewide.

Voter turnout across all demographic boundaries might be the most effective way for Daschle and Thune to find votes, Zogby said, but his poll was less clear on the effectiveness of political ads — particularly negative ones.

"That's always hard to call," he said.

Zogby pollsters discovered that although 81 percent of likely voters had heard negative advertisements criticizing Daschle, 59 percent said the ads "made no difference" in how they would vote. Among the rest, 27 percent said the ads actually made them more likely to support Daschle. Six percent said the ads made them more likely to vote for Thune, and only 3 percent said the ads turned them against Daschle.

John Muske, 68, a retired police officer who lives in the Black Hills a few miles from Hill City, is a Republican who supports President Bush, but Muske told Zogby pollsters he was undecided in the Senate race. On Thursday, he still described himself as undecided, but now he is "leaning" toward Daschle — mainly as a reaction against negative advertising. "There have been a lot of them, and Thune has put out a lot more about Daschle being crooked than the other way around," he said.

But Muske also emphasized he remained persuadable.

Both candidates run strong in their own party, but Daschle had a slight edge: 86.9 percent of Democrats said they would vote for Daschle; 75.6 percent of Republicans said they would vote for Thune.

One potential problem for Thune is that 19.7 percent of Republicans said they would vote for Daschle, compared to only 7.4 percent of Democrats who said they would vote for Thune.

Among independents, Daschle led Thune 54.4 percent to 31.9 percent.

The poll showed a tie among West River likely voters (Thune, 54 percent; Daschle, 52 percent) and in northeastern South Dakota (Daschle 47.3 percent; Thune 46.8 percent). Daschle led slightly among East River voters, 48.5 percent to 45 percent.

Daschle led among men, 48 percent to 43.8 percent; among women, the race was dead even.

Among age groups:

-- Daschle led 50.1 percent to 42.2 percent among 18- to 29-year-olds.

-- Thune led 50.2 percent to 42.9 percent in the 30-49 group, which Zogby pointed out was the largest group.

-- Daschle led 51.5 percent to 45 percent in the 50-64 age group, and he led 51.3 percent to 38.7 percent in the over-65 group.

People with household incomes of less than $35,000 favored Daschle, and those in the $35,000 to $75,000 range favored Thune.

Among voters in households with incomes over $75,000, a year the race was a statistical tie, with Daschle holding a slight edge.

The poll also showed few voters would split their Senate and House ballots.

About 83 percent of those who support Democratic Rep. Stephanie Herseth will also vote for Daschle. About 85 percent of those voting for Republican challenger Larry Diedrich will vote for Thune.

The bottom line for this poll is it confirms what other recent polls have said. Daschle might hold a slight lead in a race that's too close to call.

Contact Bill Harlan at 394-8424 or at bill.harlan@rapidcityjournal.com.