Poll shows that most South Dakotans support the president and the war in Iraq

By Bill Harlan, Journal Staff Writer | Saturday, October 02, 2004

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Likely voters in South Dakota support President Bush nearly 2 to 1 over John Kerry, and they support the war in Iraq by nearly as big a majority, according to a recent statewide poll sponsored by the Rapid City Journal, KOTA TV and other state media outlets.

Bush led Kerry 56.5 percent to 29.1 percent in the poll, which was conducted by Zogby International of Utica, N.Y.

Independent Ralph Nader, who will be on the ballot here, polled 2.1 percent. A related question suggested Nader will draw votes away from Kerry, but the number of Nader supporters polled was too small to be statistically significant.

Slightly more than 12 percent of those polled said they were undecided.

That is a higher undecided vote than most places in the country, but John Zogby, president of the polling company, said that was not unusual for a state that isn't a battleground and where the point spread is high.

Bush and Kerry haven't campaigned here, and Zogby said that probably resulted in slightly less interest in the race.

Kerry's criticism of Bush's handling of the war won't help him make up much ground in South Dakota.

About 55 percent of those polled also said they support the war in Iraq, and 30 percent said they "strongly support" it. Thirty-six percent said they opposed the war, and 21 percent were "strongly opposed." Only 8.1 percent of those polled were "not sure" whether they supported the war.

"I love the way President Bush has responded to Sept. 11," Ron McLaughlin of Rapid City, who was among those polled, said.

McLaughlin is a pharmaceutical representative who describes himself as a "pretty conservative" Republican and a member of the "Christian right." Before the terror attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, McLaughlin worried the president was "a little more moderate" than he was on some issues. Now, McLaughlin is solidly in the Bush camp.

Kelly Hartnett, 39, is a data analyst in Rapid City, She also is a Republican, and her top two issues are "national defense and personal responsibility."

She, too, is a solid Bush vote. "Kerry's flashiness didn't impress me," she said.

Democrat Lori Marshall, 21, lives in the tiny Two Stake Community on Rosebud Indian Reservation. She will vote for John Kerry.

"World peace" is the most important issue for Marshall, but she still supports the war in Iraq. Asked if she knows anyone serving, she gives a name, repeats the question, and a chorus of names follows.

Rosebud, like other South Dakota reservations, has a tradition of military service.

Zogby interviewed 500 likely voters from Sept. 24 through Sept. 28. The poll's margin of error is 4.5 percent, which, in theory, could produce a 9 point swing in the results, but even under that scenario, Bush leads Kerry here.

Bush led in every region of the state, but he was especially strong west of the Missouri River, where only about 25 percent of those polled supported Kerry.

Kerry did lead among Democrats (62.3 percent to 17 percent) and among likely voters with household incomes less than $15,000 (56.7 percent to 29 percent).

Kerry also led among American Indian voters, but pollsters contacted only 14 likely Indian voters. They favored Kerry 8 to 6, but that sample is too small to be statistically significant.

Bush led in all other demographic categories.

Contact Harlan at 394-8424 or at bill.harlan@rapidcityjournal.com