Climatologist: Current drought similar to Dirty Thirties

By Kevin Woster, Journal staff | Friday, April 20, 2007

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Seven consecutive years of below-normal rain and snow in western South Dakota haven’t quite matched the worst of the Dirty Thirties for dry times.

But the current dry spell has actually been a more dramatic environmental change than the Dust Bowl days of the 1930s produced, state climatologist Dennis Todey said Thursday.

The seven years from 2000 through 2006 have been nearly but not quite as dry as the worst of the Dust Bowl, from 1933-1940. But the first few years of the new millennium have topped the ‘30s in their dramatic switch from wet times to dry.

“We had this really wet period during the 1990s, then we’ve just fallen off the table,” Todey said during a presentation to the Western South Dakota Hydrology Conference at the Rushmore Plaza Civic Center.

Moisture in western South Dakota has been below average every year since 2000. And it has been 20 percent to 30 percent below normal for the last three years, Todey said.

Periodic breaks in the drought and occasional heavy rains haven’t been enough to lift the area up to the average-moisture mark n much less above n in any of the past seven years.

There was some good news during the conference. Rain fell overnight Wednesday and was still pattering on the pavement outside the Rushmore Plaza Civic Center as Todey made his remarks Thursday morning.

After hearing reports of an inch or more of rain in some parts of town, Todey said that was just the beginning of what is needed.

“This is a real plus right now. And we’re very happy about this,” he said. “Now we need to have it happen again in about two weeks.”

As bad as it has been in western South Dakota this time, it was even drier in the 1930s and drier still n based on tree rings n in a drought of the 1860s, Todey said. Beyond damage to livestock feed supplies and crops, the drought has hurt recreation, irrigation and municipal water supplies on some parts of the Missouri River. It contributed to more than 1,000 wildfires in the state last year. That tested financial resources as well as the emotional strength of those who suffered damage from the fires and scrambled to fight them, Todey said.

“People were running scared last year,” he said.

It will take a couple of years of average or above-average moisture to recover, Todey said. But if historic patterns are any indication, there might be better times ahead.

“If the 10-year cycle is correct, the 2010s could be better,” he said.

Contact Kevin Woster at 394-8413 or kevin.woster@rapidcityjournal.com