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Rally could be 'small' again
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FarkAs with all things motorcycle, when it comes to the Sturgis rally, size matters.
And this year's Sturgis motorcycle rally could be shaping up to be a relatively "small" rally, similar to last year's event, according to veteran rally observers and some key indicators.
The number of vendors at Sturgis so far is about the same, and there are even more motel rooms still available than last year.
The 60th rally in 2000 was probably the peak year, drawing approximately 630,000 bikers, a rough estimate based on highway traffic counters going into Sturgis and other Black Hills communities, along with other observations. The actual number is debatable, but the estimates at least show year-to-year trends.
In any case, the estimated rally numbers dropped to a little more than 500,000 for the 2003-2005 rallies, then down to an estimated 450,000 bikers last year.
Trying to predict the size of the rally beforehand is also an iffy proposition.
But motel reservations for rally week, at least in the Rapid City area, are the lowest they've been in the past several years, according to Nancy Brady, executive secretary of the Rapid City Hospitality Association.
"I've got an exceptionally large number of rooms available during the rally," Brady said. "I've even got some people with homes and cabins calling in."
She said even more rooms are available than in 2006, which was a down rally for the hotel and motel industry.
Last year, all Rapid City motels were full for only three days during the rally, Brady said. "I think this year is probably not going to be any better," she said.
Brady said bikers are resisting both the higher prices most motel operators charge and the additional requirements during the rally such as minimum stays and nonrefundable pre-payments. "Hardly anybody except a vendor could commit to that."
Susan Johnson, executive director of Black Hills Central Reservations, is seeing the same trend in the hotels, motels and campgrounds the system represents.
The reservation system saw steady climbs in rally business, peaking in 2005, its banner year, said Johnson, a former secretary of the state Tourism Department. "Last year was significantly off," Johnson said. "This year will be more like last year."
She thinks part of the decline is due to competition from other motorcycle rallies throughout the country and the aging baby boomer bubble.
The number of vendors in Sturgis registered as of Thursday morning was also running slightly behind last year, according to Ann Bertolotto, deputy city finance officer.
Pepper Massey, the interim director of the rally for the city of Sturgis, agrees that this year's rally will be about the same size as last year's. Massey has been attending the rally for years and for the past four years had been the director of the Sturgis Motorcycle Museum & Hall of Fame.
"We'll probably see 350,000 to 400,000 this year," Massey said.
She noted that attendance at other major motorcycle rallies around the country has been down slightly this year.
"However, our visitor traffic in the Hills this summer has been phenomenal," Massey said. "I'm hopeful it will balance out."
Massey said she expects rally numbers to climb again for the 70th anniversary in 2010.
Meanwhile, rally attendance will be affected by other factors in the country, including worries about the economy, the price of fuel and the war, she said.
"Motorcycling now is so mainstream that what goes on in the country affects what goes on in events like this," Massey said.
She said the heavy motorcycle market also is leveling off after a boom over the past 10 or 15 years. "There is a bit of a slowdown in the industry, and that impacts what happens here also."
However, Massey said, the rally office in city hall has been besieged, as always, by inquiries about the rally. "The phone hasn't stopped ringing. So it's not all gloom and doom."
In fact, the predictions of a smaller rally aren't in line with reservations at two longtime rally campgrounds and concert venues.
The Buffalo Chip is headed for another record year, owner Rod Woodruff said.
Reservations at Glencoe CampResort also were running ahead of last year, according to Francie Ruebel-Alberts, Glencoe executive vice president.
Ruebel-Alberts also said she has heard that this year's rally will be smaller, but the bike traffic in Sturgis all summer long has been strong. "Our streets are full."
Part of what makes it difficult to estimate the rally is that it is spreading out, geographically and over time. More bikers are coming early to ride the roads in the Black Hills before the bulk of the rally crowd arrives. Then, they leave early.
Brad Kehn, manager at Pilot Travel Center in Mitchell, said he is seeing that trend again this year. He said Thursday that his rally-related business was about the same as last year. And he said he hasn't heard a complaint about gas prices.
Bill Hearne, managing partner of Outdoor Motor Sports, the Honda and Yamaha dealership in Spearfish, said that earlier this year, he thought the 2007 rally would be down about 10 percent. "Now, I don't know that that's going to be true," Hearne said. "Our early traffic this year is more than what it has been in the past. I don't know if it takes away from the peak crowd. If it does, it's a good thing. It makes it more possible to wait on customers."
Hearne, like Johnson of Black Hills Central Reservation, said rally demographics, weighted toward those in their 40s and 50s, could be affecting rally attendance.
"So many people have been to multiple rallies. It isn't their first one any more," Hearne said.
Of course, to the average Black Hills resident trying to negotiate hordes of bikers to get to the grocery store, a "small" rally is almost meaningless.
More than 400,000 bikers still has a big impact. And the rally is still a boon to the hotel, motel and campground industry, Johnson said.
"They're everybody's favorite customer," Johnson said. "When they're all here, it's hard to tell it's a softer rally."
Contact Steve Miller at 394-8417 or steve.miller@rapidcityjournal.com
Rodney Rader, right, talks with Joe and Heather Oriordan of Tampa, Fla., about motorcycles and the rally as they relax Thursday afternoon in front of the Best Western in Sturgis. (Photo by Seth A. McConnell, Journal staff)
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