Voter registrations could benefit opponents of abortion ban

By Kevin Woster, Journal staff | Tuesday, October 28, 2008

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Thousands of new Democratic voters attracted to the party in part through the appeal of presidential candidate Barack Obama are expected to influence the vote next week on a proposed state abortion ban.

The effect is likely to be more helpful to opponents of Initiated Measure 11, given the fact that the Democratic candidates – Obama and Hillary Rodman Clinton – who inspired much of the voter surge – are pro-choice. But advocates on both sides of the issue won’t say whether they think that effect could be decisive.

Nathan Petersen of Sioux Falls, a spokesman for the anti-11 South Dakota Campaign for Healthy Families, expects the new Democratic registrations to include more votes against the abortion ban than for it. But beyond that, it’s dangerous to predict election outcomes on a deeply personal issue that crosses party lines, he said.

“I think it’s a positive development for us,” Petersen said of the Democratic voter gains. “I think it’s also worth noting that in South Dakota, the debate around Measure 11 is much less a partisan issue.”

Speaking in support of the proposed ban, VoteYesforLife spokeswoman Brandi Gruis of Sioux Falls said she was less concerned about the total of new registered voters than those who might have been registered improperly. Gruis fears that fraudulent registrations could unfairly increase the number of voters against the ban.

“If we’d seen both parties increase, due to an increase in population, there’d be less cause for concern,” she said. “This is imbalanced. So we’re suspicious.”

Petersen and others in the anti-11 movement say fraud charges are unwarranted attempts to divert attention from the issue itself. They credit intensive Democratic voter-registration efforts for the 12,000 increase in Democratic voters statewide since November 2006, when voters rejected a similar abortion ban on a 56-44 percent vote.

That proposed ban was approved as HB1215 by the 2006 state Legislature, signed by Gov. Mike Rounds and referred to a public vote through a petition drive by opponents.

Referred Law 6, as it appeared on the 2006 general-election ballot, would have allowed abortions only when needed to save the pregnant woman’s life. Initiated Measure 11, which was placed on this year’s ballot through a petition drive by abortion foes, would ban the procedure except to save the woman’s life, protect her health or terminate pregnancies caused by rape or incest.

Opponents and supporters argue over whether those exceptions are legitimate. The measure is opposed by the South Dakota State Medical Association as a government intrusion into medical practices. Some doctors, however, support the measure.

Along with the addition of debatable exceptions for health, rape and incest, this year’s abortion ban has been argued much the same as it was in 2006. Whether the outcome is different this year could depend on how swing voters view this year’s exceptions, how many of the thousands of newly registered voters turn out and how they vote.

Between the vote two years ago and Oct. 18, when the last statewide count of registered voters was available through the secretary of state’s office, Republicans had gained about 500 voters. Democrats gained 12,000. Independents gained 6,500.

Most of the Democratic and independent gains have come since last spring, driven both by aggressive voter-registration efforts and excitement over the competitive presidential primary between Obama and Clinton. State Republican Party officials agree the presidential primary had much to do with the surge in Democratic registration.

Petersen said the primary energy has lingered in the Democratic ranks. That and Obama’s ability to keep the presidential race with John McCain unusually competitive in the state is likely to bring many of the new voters to the polls, he said.

“I think folks who have newly registered this year have done so because they were energized by the campaigns,” he said. “I’d expect if they’ve taken the step to register, they’ll follow up by voting.”

But there will be more than excitement at work when those voters turn out, Democratic Party insider Jeff Masten of Rapid City said. The newly registered voters will be coaxed by a methodical system to identify opponents of the ban and get them to the polls.

“That’s half the reason for doing voter-registration drives. It generates a list for you to call and find out where they are on a particular issue,” Masten said. “And those names, the ones supporting you, go into a pile on Election Day, and they get turned out.”

Even if a set of newly registered voters break down evenly on a given issue, targeted get-out-the-vote efforts can bring a disproportionate percentage of a sub-group – in this case, those identified as being opposed to the abortion measure – to the polls, Masten said.

“You could start with an actual distribution of 40 percent in favor, 40 percent opposed and 20 percent undecided and turn that into 50 percent of the voters who turn out supporting your side, with a little survey work, and get out of the vote,” he said.

As a political consultant specializing in grass-roots organization, Petersen understands the process. But he declined to speculate on what the effect might be on the abortion-ban measure.

“We’re not taking anything for granted,” he said. “At the end of the day, it’s what voters decide they feel on the issue. Irrespective of political positions, they come to the issue with feelings on abortion that are very strong.”

Contact Kevin Woster at 394-8413 or kevin.woster@rapidcityjournal.com