STURGIS - With the national economy in the dump and motorcycle sales stalling, it would be natural to figure the Sturgis rally will be down this year, maybe even smaller than last year's rally.

Sturgis city manager David Boone isn't buying that. "I think we're going to sit this recession out," Boone said Wednesday.

Boone said he has a gut feeling this will be a bigger rally than last year, both from the swelling rumble of bikes in town early this week and an uptick in preliminary city revenue numbers.

Other city officials, including Mayor Maury LaRue and finance officer Fay Bueno are more cautious. LaRue said he wouldn't be surprised if rally attendance is down even from the 2008 rally, which at 414,417 bikers, was probably the smallest event since the 65th rally drew 525,250 in 2005.

But Boone and a few other observers noted that Main Street in Sturgis was filling with bikes already on Wednesday. "I've never seen it ramp up like this so early," Boone said.

There were plenty of motorcycles parked on Main Street late Wednesday afternoon as early rally goers shopped at vendor stands that were open.

Among the early riders were Dale Besler and his daughter, Josie Hagensten, and Dennis Blosch and his daughter, Amanda Sproule, all of Dubuque, Iowa.

"We're going to try this a week before the rally for a change," Besler said as the four headed for the Main Street vendors Wednesday. "It's less congested."

The four friends had already ridden to Devils Tower, the Badlands and Spearfish Canyon. They were going to ride to Mount Rushmore and other parts of the Hills and then leave before the main crush of the rally arrives this weekend.

And they'll shop, particularly their daughters. "They've got a bunch of souvenirs they want to buy," Besler said.

Lots of bikers were carrying shopping bags full of stuff in Sturgis on Wednesday.

They are among the increasing number of bikers who have been showing up early for the rally over the past few years.

That's partly why it's difficult to predict or assess the size of the rally.

Boone said the city already has seen its gross receipts from tourism tax rise 4 percent over last year. Rally property rentals contracted with vendors are up 18 percent over last year. Rally sponsorship receipts are up 3 percent to 5 percent, he said.

Boone said the 40 percent drop in fuel prices from last year's rally could be one explanation.

City rally director Brenda Vasknetz agrees that this year's rally likely will draw more bikers than last year. She said many campgrounds are reporting increases in reservations, although a city council member who rents out property reported a cancellation.

Buffalo Chip Campground owner Rod Woodruff said he expects another double-digit percentage increase in attendance.

Black Hills Central Reservations manager Susan Johnson also predicts a rally at least as big as last year's. She said reservations at campgrounds, hotels and other tourist sites are up 9 percent for the rally over the same time last year.

"I'm not saying that's how the rally is going to end up," Johnson said. "I'm saying it's going to be a hair ahead."

She said this year's rally could halt the slide that began after the rally in 2005.

She also said that contrary to most years, when reservations begin to slow by July, they have continued to come in steadily.

"We have seen more last-minute reservations than ever, for the rally and for travel in general," Johnson said.

At the Sturgis Motorcycle Museum and Hall of Fame, admissions have been running ahead of 2008 numbers all summer, said executive director Christine Paige Diers.

That has continued this week. On Tuesday, 407 people came into the museum or the gift shop. That compares with 270 last year.

Diers said business has been up at the museum gift shop, too.

However, rally vendors may not be sold on the size of the rally or the willingness to spend on the part of bikers.

For the first time in years, there were signs on Main Street on the Wednesday before the rally advertising vendor space for rent. Some vendor spaces on Main and Lazelle streets were still vacant Wednesday.

Connie Ruebel, a Realtor with The Real Estate Center in Sturgis, said she is handling far fewer rally house rentals than in past years. She said some local residents who have rented out homes and vendor spaces have reported cancellations from bikers and vendors.

But Ruebel, too, noted that the town was full of bikers.

Boone said part of the vendor problem is that the state revenue department officials didn't open up the licensing station at city hall until Wednesday, instead of Monday or Tuesday as in previous years.

Vendors swarmed city hall on Wednesday, filling out license forms. After the first day, the city sold 322 vendor licenses, nearly the same number sold in the first two days last year, said Bueno, the finance officer.

Besides temporary vendors and permanent area businesses that cater to the rally, area cities and the state have a financial interest in the rally's size and spending habits.

Last year, Sturgis issued 697 vendor licenses, the third year of decline since 2005's 901 vendors. Each license sells for $600.

Last year, the city brought in $217,155 in sales tax revenues from temporary vendors, also the third straight decline.

Mayor LaRue said the city's rally expenses - about $1.2 million - are constant, regardless of how many bikers show up and spend money. In recent years, the city's revenues have matched or exceeded its expenses.

Of course, all the numbers and observations so far are just speculation.

The vendor numbers will be pretty close to final by the end of today, Bueno said.

And the state Department of Transportation traffic counts and the sales tax figures will be totaled after the rally.

Attendance figures are estimates. But the traffic counts and tax revenues can at least indicate trends.

Until then, said Bueno, "With this economy, it's a guess."

"We're anxious," admitted LaRue. "We don't know."

Contact Steve Miller at 394-8415 or steve.miller@rapidcityjournal.com.

Title: Sturgis Rally (July 31, 2009) Date: July 30th, 2009 Stories, videos and more for Friday, July 31, 2009, at the Sturgis Rally. VIEW PRESENTATION »