After 16 months and 92,000 road miles, Republican Joel Dykstra remains a relatively distant image in the rear-view mirror of Sen. Tim Johnson's rumbling reelection machine.

Or so it seems.

With less than four weeks to go until the Nov. 4 election, the better-known, better-financed Democratic incumbent is touting a 25-plus-point lead over Dykstra in scientific polling done in July, August and September. According to those surveys of South Dakota voters, even Johnson's refusal to debate his Republican challenger has done little to shake the 22-year-congressional veteran's solid standing in the polls.

Yet Dykstra, who continues to pile up the miles in his well-traveled 2007 Yukon, projects an unflappable demeanor when asked about his seemingly distant standing so late in the race. That's partly because he doesn't believe Johnson's numbers and has some of his own that show a narrower gap.

"You can make all the press releases you want. Our numbers clearly show that's not the case," Dykstra said of the 27-point lead claimed by Johnson's campaign most recently. "And frankly, their behavior tends to make me feel more confident. They didn't spend a million dollars on TV because they didn't think they needed to. And he (Johnson) didn't flip his vote on the economic rescue package because he feels so confident. It was clearly a political decision."

Johnson's campaign has indeed been pouring money into the reelection effort, including advertising buys totally more than $1.1 million. And campaign staffers remain vigilant in keeping tabs on Dykstra, including sending a paid staffer with a video camera to appearances by the challenger.

The Johnson campaign is quick to respond when Dykstra criticizes the senator, sometimes to a degree that seems disproportional to some, if the race really is a runaway. Johnson campaign manager Steve Jarding argues that he gets paid to respond quickly and directly in a political world where a lack of attentiveness can be dangerous.

"I feel good about where we are, but you can't take anything for granted," Jarding said. "You've still got to ride that horse across the finish line. I've been in this business long enough to know that things can go south in a hurry."

Big issues have the potential to start that southern migration. And the financial bailout or rescue package is a big issue. Johnson appeared to change his mind on the $700-billion package last week. He admitted during a telephone interview on Friday that he vacillated during the day of the vote, and he gave indications to some lobbying in favor of the rescue plan - including those on a midday conference call with representatives of the South Dakota Bankers Association - that he would support it.

"I was inclined to support it at that point, but I said clearly that I had not yet made up my mind and that something intervening could happen," Johnson said. "It was a combination of abiding by the will of my constituents, and my feeling that it was bad policy."

Dykstra thinks it was something else.

"People we've talked to in the business community and other feedback we've had was that it was a very late decision," Dykstra said. "It was a campaign decision."

Dykstra believes that the national mortgage meltdown - in particular, the floundering of government-backed providers Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and the resulting fall on Wall Street - can be laid at the feet of Johnson and other incumbents, as well as the Bush Administration.

Dykstra works that angle hard at campaign stops and media interviews, criticizing Johnson for not using his position as vice chairman of the Senate Banking Committee to do more in averting the financial crisis. And in a pointed advertisement released last week, Dykstra charges straight out that campaign contributions Johnson received from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac might have had something to do with failure to act effectively in regulating the banking-mortgage business.

In the ad, Dykstra mentions Johnson's spot on the Banking Committee and $61,000 in campaign contributions he said the senator received from troubled Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac mortgage providers. It's a clear charge that Johnson failed in his watchdog role, and possibly worse. Dykstra also focuses on Johnson's vote against a 2005 proposal co-sponsored by Arizona Sen. John McCain to place such oversight on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

"He took their campaign contributions but voted against tougher oversight. Now, it's costing billions of our tax dollars to fix the problem," Dykstra says in the advertisement. "It's no surprise that Sen. Johnson won't debate, because he failed in the most important part of his job."

The ad is bare-knuckled politics by South Dakota standards, sharper than any other in the campaign so far by either side. Dykstra doesn't deny that - or apologize for it.

"Yeah, but it's the truth," he said when asked if the advertisement was tough. "It's an important point to make, and it's what the voters need to know to make their decisions. It's my responsibility as a candidate to raise real issues."

After unseating a once-dominant incumbent Republican Sen. Larry Pressler in 1996 and following up with a 524-vote win over John Thune six years later, Johnson knows the realities of campaign hardball. But he said Dykstra is off base with his ad.

"It's mistaken," Johnson said.

The 61-year-old senator said less than 1 percent of his contributions from political action committees during the past 22 years came from banks. And even then, Johnson points out that when it came time to make the biggest vote affecting banks and other financial institutions, he voted the other way.

"The banks obviously favored the bailout, and I voted against it," Johnson said. "I have many contributors. But no one cause is eminent in my thinking."

Johnson also points out that he supported banking-reform legislation that was opposed by the Bush administration and failed because of Republican resistance. Johnson said he initially voted against the McCain-sponsored legislation before the Senate Banking Committee in 2005 because Republicans stripped out affordable-housing provisions that he felt were necessary.

Later, with those provisions restored, Johnson voted for the bill, which also failed.

Johnson also points out that in 2005, the Senate was under Republican control, and his power on the committee was diminished.

Dykstra said such responses conflict with the Johnson's campaign persona as an influential congressional veteran who swings a big club in the U.S. Senate.

"You can't have it both ways," Dykstra said. "You can't be playing this clout game, talking about all your experience and influence, and then not take responsibility for things that went wrong."

Dykstra is likely to push that theme in the remaining four weeks. There will be more miles in the Yukon and more advertisements, strategically placed according to his limited campaign budget.

Money remains an issue for the challenger. And it's one area where he doesn't dispute Johnson's superiority. Through June, the incumbent Democrat had raised $5.1 million in the 2008 campaign cycle, and Dykstra, $380,000. Dykstra said last week that he didn't know exactly where he was on fund-raising since the end-of-June report. He'll have specifics out soon on the third quarter, showing something between $500,000 and $1 million through September.

"I'm expecting us to be close to $1 million for the campaign," he said.

That's enough to run an effective campaign, continue to increase his name recognition and mount a more defined challenge of Johnson's record, he said.

Dykstra has spent some money on polling through Moore Information of Washington, D.C. Although declining to provide numbers, Dykstra said a survey at the end of July and another at the end of September showed him closer than Johnson's polling numbers indicate, and closing.

He's also happy that his "market penetration," or name identification, has increased to about 90 percent, he said. Those surveys show a lead for Johnson and high favorable ratings for the senator but lower "re-elect" numbers, Dykstra said. He thinks weakness in the Johnson numbers could be crucial to the outcome of the election.

"People feel very positive toward Sen. Johnson as a person. And we all have great respect for him and what he and his family have gone through," Dykstra said. "But that's not the same as a re-hire decision."

Jarding said the mix of polling results in August and September from the campaign's hired national pollster, Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research Firm, is almost identical to independent polling of the race done in July and August by Rasmussen Reports.

"The Rasmussen polling showed it at 25-26 percent, and our polling had it at 27 percent," he said. "We think our numbers are solid."

Jarding also expects that gap to close somewhat as the election draws near and "some Republicans go home" to the GOP candidate. He said Dykstra may be seeing some of that reflected on his polling. But if the tightening were significant, Dykstra would be releasing the numbers, Jarding said.

"He never releases the methodology. He doesn't give numbers. If you've got it, release it," he said.

Jarding this week released updated numbers on the Johnson campaign funding, which showed the campaign with about $1.6 million cash on hand and more than $500,000 raised in the quarter ending September 30.

"Cash on hand is the important number at this point," he said.

The limited number of advertising buys by Dykstra indicate that is campaign is short of cash, Jarding said. Dykstra admits he has to select his buys carefully but believes he'll make enough media buys to compete.

It's been a long campaign, yet the 50-year-old state representative and former oil-and-gas executive from Canton said he is far from weary. He claims to have more energy as Election Day draws near.

"We're right where I expected us to be. We've worked this whole campaign to get to the fourth quarter with a chance to win," Dykstra said. "We're entering the fourth quarter, and we think we've got a chance to win."

Contact Kevin Woster at 394-8413 or kevin.woster@rapidcityjournal.com