Chris Lien began his campaign for the U.S. House late last year hoping to prove the experts wrong.

That meant beating incumbent Democratic Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin in this November's election, a daunting task that immediately relegated Lien to long-shot status among so-called political experts. And after spending close to $500,000 and visiting 200 towns and cities, Lien's perceived standing hasn't changed all that much.

"I can truthfully say that absolutely no one is watching Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin's re-election race," University of Virginia political science professor Larry Sabato said. "That is a safe Democratic seat on my crystal ball and everybody else's rating service, too."

But "safe" in far-off Washington, D.C., is not always secure on the Tilt-a-Whirl campaign trail. That's why Lien forges on with a hopeful attitude, whether feigned or sincere. It's why Herseth Sandlin and her staff have increased the intensity of their campaign in recent weeks, digging into a campaign account that dwarfs what Lien has available.

And it's why state Republican Party Executive Director Max Wetz of Pierre waves the flag of GOP possibilities into the strong wind of the Herseth Sandlin incumbency.

"Things in politics in particular can change so quickly. Something can turn on a dime and affect the entire tenor of the race," Wetz said. "People who discounted the Lien campaign from the beginning were selling the campaign short and selling Chris short."

With two weeks to go, there's no indication of any sea changes in this little-discussed, lightly-reported race. Herseth Sandlin and her staff say they haven't been polling, but other scientific voter surveys reflect a 25- to 30-point lead for the incumbent Democrat.

Still, Lien isn't a candidate to sell short. Even the other side agrees on that. He is appealing in both physical appearance and speaking style, with a successful work experience in the influential family mining-and-processing business in Rapid City.

Rick Hauffe, executive director of the South Dakota Democratic Party in Sioux Falls, said Lien could well have a bright political future. But the future isn't now, Hauffe said.

"The thing is, Chris Lien is a nice person. He's a conscientious person. He'd be a very attractive candidate," Hauffe said. "But not this year. And not against Stephanie Herseth Sandlin."

Lien faced an assortment of challenges in his campaign. They included, ironically enough, money problems. Despite personal and family wealth, he has struggled to raise the money necessary to compete against a popular incumbent. His campaign had raised $460,000 through Sept. 30. And he expects to top the $500,000 mark for the campaign.

He also expects to dig into his own pocket for more than $100,000 to $150,000 of that amount. But as a businessman with a careful feel for a dollar, he will limit self-financing.

"I don't want to do it that way," he said. In talking with his wife, Julie, before starting the campaign, "We looked at it like saving for college, as an investment."

Beyond the money, he faces a Democrat who sometimes votes like a Republican and manages to appear moderate to conservative on many issues. Lien points out differences on abortion. He supports a current statewide initiative effort to ban the procedure in most instances in South Dakota. Herseth Sandlin opposes the measure.

And he also would be more aggressive on energy exploration, where he supports developing petroleum reserves in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge and more extensive work in off-shore development.

Lien said last week that he doesn't consider Herseth Sandlin to be a moderate. He points to the number of votes that align with the liberal Democratic leadership of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

"If you go to the Washington Post and look at the voting records, she's voted 93-and-one-half percent of the time with party lines and party leadership," Lien said. "So statistically that tells me she's not moderate."

Herseth Sandlin and her staff dispute that, pointing instead to a National Journal vote survey that lists 57.3 percent of her votes as leaning liberal and 46.3 percent as leaning conservative. The review considers her a centrist representative. That's an accurate reflection of Herseth Sandlin's balanced style and philosophy, deputy chief of staff Russ Levsen said. So, too, is her active involvement in the Blue Dog Coalition, a group of congressional Democrats with moderate leanings and conservative fiscal tendencies who work with Republicans on some issues.

"That National Journal count puts her really in the center, which is how she represents the state," Levsen said. "By any standard of measurement, she is a moderate member of Congress."

Herseth Sandlin points to her vote against the recent $750 billion bailout package as an example of how she goes against party leadership. And she was the only Democratic member of the House to vote against another bill concerning credit card operations that might have hurt South Dakota

She has earned an "A" rating from the NRA in all of her five congressional campaigns, including her first against Gov. Bill Janklow. Herseth Sandlin lost that challenge but distinguished herself with the way she campaigned.

"She ran a tough, uphill campaign against someone who was really unbeatable," Hauffe said. "She did all the right things, and ran a very competent campaign. And people remembered that. When fate struck, she went back and did it again, only not against Bill Janklow."

Janklow's vehicular manslaughter conviction left his House seat open. And Herseth Sandlin beat a strong Republican, Elkton farmer and former state Sen. Larry Diedrich, in special election in June 2004. She then beat Diedrich again that fall for her first full two-year term.

"She got a chance to win an election and prove herself in Congress," Hauffe said. "She's taken some votes that were unpopular with her (Democratic) base. But in the long run she ended up expanding that base, strongly, into the other party and with independents."

Herseth Sandlin said she tries to expand her base through hard work rather than political strategy.

"I've worked hard to keep earning that support and trust in my productivity as a member of Congress for South Dakota," she said.

Looking back on his two runs against Herseth Sandlin and watching her perform in Congress since, Diedrich knew Lien faced difficult odds in this year's race.

"If people hated Stephanie or whatever, that would be one thing. Or if she'd voted differently on that financial bailout bill, he (Lien) might have had something to get his teeth into," Diedrich said. "Whether it's really her philosophy or not, she votes and talks in a way that makes it very difficult for a Republican to run against her."

Lien is a "sharp guy, obviously a very good candidate" who, if unsuccessful this year, can position himself in line for another run, Diedrich said.

"I think everybody likes Chris, and he certainly has not burned any bridges by the campaign he's run," he said. "I think you can lose and maintain that candidate status. I do think it becomes much more difficult if it becomes a wild blow-out."

Lien still hopes to do more than avoid a blow-out. And he says he never saw this challenge as a simply laying the groundwork for a more winnable race in the future.

"I didn't get into it because I had the best odds," he said. "I got into it because I thought I could make a difference."

But to do that, he had to prove the experts wrong. Two weeks from today, he'll know how well he did.

Contact Kevin Woster at 394-8413 or kevin.woster@rapidcityjournal.com