With forecasts calling for drought to persist or worsen in western South Dakota, the outlook is growing grim for the 2008 fire season, the area's top two firefighters say.

"Right now, the scientific factors are pointing to another challenging fire season," Joe Lowe, coordinator of the South Dakota Wildland Fire Suppression Division said.

Lowe attended a meeting in Pierre last week with other fire officials and weather experts, who said the region likely will see warmer-than-average temperatures and lower-than-average precipitation from March through May.

The U.S. Drought Monitor earlier this winter had indicated some improvement for the region, but last week, it changed its forecast and now predicts that drought will persist or intensify for most of the western third of the state.

The western Black Hills is right on the line between an area to the west slated for some improvement in drought conditions and an area to the east where drought is expected to persist or intensify.

"I'm always inclined to be more of a pessimist," said Todd Pechota, fire-management officer for the Black Hills National Forest. Pechota said he is assuming the drought will persist. "With that in mind, the Black Hills National Forest will continue to prepare and be ready for an active fire season once again."

He said the snow pack is generally good over the Northern Hills but sparse over the central and southern Black Hills. "We definitely could use a bunch more snow," Pechota said.

Lowe said the sparse snow pack could lead to earlier snow melts, faster drying at higher elevations and fires earlier in the season.

According to Lowe, state fire meteorologist Randall Benson said the data indicate a fire season this year that could approach that of 2000, when more than a quarter-million acres burned in the state. That year included the 83,500-acre Jasper Fire.

This year, Lowe said he will recommend contracting for at least three single engine air tankers, commonly called SEATs.

He said the division this summer will have only one heavy helicopter available from the South Dakota National Guard. That is down from as many as four heavy helicopters from the Guard in past years, Lowe said. "We've depended heavily on the National Guard for type 1 helicopters," he said. "That's no longer the case because of deployments."

Pechota said the Black Hills National Forest will have the same amount of resources as it did last year, with one light helicopter, capable of carrying about 150 gallons of water; one heavy helicopter that can carry up to 1,000 gallons; 18 fire engines; three 10-member hand crews; the interagency Tatanka Hot Shot crew; and two bulldozers.

Also, the Forest Service is trying to reduce the amount of wildfire fuel in the forest through its annual prescribed burning program, Pechota said.

"We're about 7,000 or 8,000 acres into it for the fiscal year beginning Oct. 1," Pechota said. "If we get a good spring with more moisture, we can get another couple thousand acres done."

The state's hand crews also work throughout the year to thin out trees and brush that could provide fuel for wildfire, according to Ryan Ricke, fuels specialist for the fire division.

This week, members of the Bear Mountain and Black Hat crews were thinning trees and brush on 40 acres of National Guard property on the west edge of Rapid City.

Lowe said the state drought task force will reassess the drought situation in April. "We will continue to follow the trends, but we are starting to make provisions for a busy fire season."

He said he might recommend two more SEATs if the moisture situation worsens.

Lowe said he is concerned about the ever-tightening competition for fire resources as fires nationally continue to become bigger and hotter.

A government report earlier this month said Forest Service air tankers used to fight Western wildfires are potentially vulnerable to accidents. The agency owns 26 aircraft and leases 771 aircraft for firefighting. The Forest Service will require stricter inspections and maintenance on its leased aircraft.

Lowe said he didn't know if it will become more difficult to get additional air tankers here. But, he said, "Anytime that we lose any of the tools out of the wildland fire toolbox in extreme fire conditions, that puts a strain on things."

He also said it could become more difficult to hire the SEATs planes in the future. Pilots are finding it more lucrative to go back to crop-spraying operations, Lowe said.

He said his division's budget has been maintained. The division currently has 17 fire engines, two hand crews and a batch of equipment that includes eight command trailers, a mobile kitchen and a mobile supply cache.

Lowe said the average fire season nationally has grown by 78 days over the past 15 years.

"We're starting to see mega-fires that change the forest landscape to where it won't come back in our lifetime," Lowe said.

With tightening resources and dangerous fire seasons, it becomes even more important for agencies to work together, Lowe said.

He said the state, the Forest Service and local fire departments are doing just that.

"Fortunately for the taxpayers of South Dakota, there's a synergy," Lowe said. "All the partners are walking lock-step together to face these challenges."

Contact Steve Miller at 394-8417 or steve.miller@rapidcityjournal.com