For gardeners worried about green tomatoes lingering on the vine, there's a little good news in the forecast -- the likelihood of a wide-spread killing frost in the Rapid City area is still a few days off.

Despite a relatively cool summer, the Midwest has enjoyed a fairly long summer, according to state climatologist Dennis Todey of Brookings.

Depending upon your location in the state, the summer ranks among the 15 coolest, Todey said. "July was especially cool."

Temperatures flipped around in September.

"Last week was an outstanding week out your way," Todey said. Temperatures soared 10-12 degrees above average in the northwestern corner of the state to make the third week in September one of the five warmest on record.

"It looks like, for the near term, we're going to be okay in the way of a frost so the horticultural plants, as long as they have water, should still be doing okay for a while," Todey said.

What's happening in the garden has been happening in fields across the state, Todey said.

Corn and soybean crops hampered by cooler temperatures earlier in the growing season are catching up in the eastern part of the state.

In Brookings, where Todey lives, July temperatures never broke 83 degrees, he said.

"Plants were in pretty good shape, just behind in development," Todey said. "The very warm temperatures are pushing things along toward development."

If there is an off-side to a warm and dry fall, it's the challenge it presents for winter wheat, especially in the south-central part of the state.

"That's probably not been as good for winter wheat planting," Todey said.

Rapid City officially bid summer good-bye and welcomed fall at 3:18 p.m. Tuesday, which means winter isn't far behind.

And, what's ahead for the winter?

An El Nino system warming ocean temperatures along the South American coastline should signal a warmer than average winter, according to Todey and Matt Bunkers, National Weather Service science and operations officer in Rapid City.

But, there's a devil in the mix: a cooling of ocean temperatures along the western coast of the United States coupled with ocean warming in the north central Pacific called the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.

This temperature shift occurs in 20- to 30-year phases, Todey said. And it changed this year to a phase that doesn't work as well with El Ninos.

"El Ninos aren't quite as well behaved during the winter time," Todey said. "Overall, we still think we'll be warmer than average over the winter, but our confidence is lower."

Forecasting the coming winter is further complicated because the El Nino is still considered weak, Bunkers said.

"We're forecasting that to become moderate strength," Bunkers said.

By and large, there's a pretty good consensus that the winter -- December, January and February - will be warmer than average, Bunkers said.

He said the later part of the winter - from February into March - can get a bit colder.

"But, the good news there is if we can get through the roughest months of the winter being slightly above average, if it gets a little bit colder it's not going to be as extreme."

After last winter's record snow, this winter is going to seem much better, Bunkers said.

Areas around the Black Hills experienced near record snowfall, but Bunkers doesn't see that happening this winter.

"We clearly do not see that much snow this winter," Bunkers said.

Contact Andrea Cook at 394-8423 or andrea.cook@rapidcityjournal.com.