SPEARFISH - The Republicans who gathered for lunch at the Cedar House Restaurant were clearly impressed with the new guy.

Articulate and engaging, Chris Lien made a promising political picture as he stood with his smiling wife, Julie, and shook hands with a small group of GOP faithful.

It was his first of many public appearances to come on the long, rocky road of an underdog's congressional campaign. The 42-year-old heir to an influential Rapid City-based mining and manufacturing operation promised to take a work ethic and business philosophy handed down through "five generations of people who build things" to the U.S. House of Representatives.

There's just one catch, of course. Her name is Stephanie Herseth Sandlin.

Republican supporter Bill Trent of Spearfish made that point moments after Lien showed all the right moves during a compelling speech at a meeting of the Spearfish Republican Women.

"She's going to be tough," Trent said with a serious grin, referring to Democratic Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin, a popular, well-financed incumbent.

Lien smiled his agreement: "She is. And I plan to work hard and run hard."

"Hard" is the operative word for Lien and other candidates trying to unseat established Congressional incumbents. It's hard to raise money. It's hard to connect with voters. It's hard to get media attention. It's hard to compete with the powers of the office - which, in the U.S. House, translate into incumbent-retention rates that can top 95 percent.

Mission impossible

Steve Jarding, a political consultant, college instructor and current campaign manager of Democratic Sen. Tim Johnson's re-election campaign, says that beating a U.S. House incumbent is very nearly a mission impossible.

"I appreciate what these guys have to go through," Jarding said, referring to congressional challengers. "Incumbents are hard to beat. Ninety-eight percent of the House members get re-elected. They're known. They get back to their states. They have a reservoir of donors.

"I tell my students all the time: 'Don't run against incumbents, with rare exceptions, because they win all the time: You're going to lose.'"

Exceptions are indeed rare in South Dakota's recent political history. In 1974, first-time Republican candidate Larry Pressler upset two-term incumbent Democratic U.S. Rep. Frank Denholm for the state's First District congressional seat. That was the last time an incumbent House member from South Dakota was forced to leave office, except for an odd election in 1982 and a manslaughter case in 2003.

South Dakota's two congressional districts were combined into one at-large district after the 1980 census. That set up a battle of incumbents in the 1982 general election, where First District Democratic incumbent Rep. Tom Daschle beat Second District Republican incumbent Rep. Clint Roberts by a vote of 142,122 to 133,530.

Another aberration from the incumbent-re-election rule came in 2004, when there was no incumbent in the congressional campaign. That's because former Republican Gov. Bill Janklow - winner in 2002 of the House seat left open when incumbent Republican Rep. John Thune challenged Sen. Tim Johnson for the Senate seat - had to leave the House after a jury convicted him of vehicular manslaughter.

Incumbency gap

Herseth Sandlin prospered from that incumbency gap. After losing the 2002 House race to Janklow in a first-time campaign that impressed Democrats and Republicans, Herseth Sandlin ran and won in a special election in the spring of 2004 to serve the remainder of Janklow's term. She beat a quality candidate, former Republican state legislator Larry Diedrich of Elkton, by 3,000 votes.

Then, in the regular general election that fall, she showed the immediate effects of incumbency, topping Diedrich by almost 30,000 votes to earn her own two-year term.

As a fully developed incumbent in 2006, she trounced Republican challenger Bruce Whalen, 69 percent to 29 percent. Whalen was underfinanced, spending a total of $148,000 on the campaign. In addition, he struggled to find effective messages in his campaign and never seemed to connect beyond the most loyal of party partisans.

As a well-known West River businessman with statewide connections and a family of both wealth and stature, Lien has the potential to do much better than 29 percent. How much better depends first on winning the Republican primary in June and second on spending a lot of money.

Herseth Sandlin spent $1.5 million in her losing-but- respectable effort against Janklow. She followed that with a total of $4 million on the two campaigns against Diedrich in 2004, and $1.3 million against Whalen in 2006.

Herseth Sandlin raised $214,740 in the fourth quarter of 2006. As of Dec. 31, she had $649,094.60 in campaign cash on hand. That's about $100,000 ahead of where she was in January of 2006.

Her deputy chief of staff, Russ Levsen, said Herseth Sandlin is concentrating on congressional duties and didn't have a comment on Lien's fundraising or the upcoming campaign.

But Lien is likely to need at least $1 million to run a competitive campaign. And people accustomed to counting the money in political races think he might need substantially more than that, particularly if it involves a contested GOP primary and a general election.

Former state Republican party Chairman Joel Rosenthal of Sioux Falls said the mix of staff, polling and advertising costs very quickly push a serious campaign to $1 million and beyond.

"You get your pollsters, four or five staff people, offices and things like that set up, you've spent a quarter of a million," Rosenthal said.

"Then, you start figuring in those $1,400 or $1,500 television ads, and it adds up pretty quickly."

State fundraising key

The key fundraising must begin in the state, to bring legitimacy to the candidate, gather attention of the media and begin to attract the kind of national attention that can translate into more dollars beyond the state, he said.

"You are for real as a candidate at some number. I think $1 million might be a slight bit low. Maybe it's $1.2 or $1.5 million," Rosenthal said. "I think a serious candidate for the U.S. House in South Dakota can raise $1.5 million in state."

Diedrich was serious in 2005. He raised $2.5 million for the two campaigns against Herseth Sandlin. But that was for an open seat, and he was a former state legislator and agriculture leader given a good chance of winning.

Those factors helped Diedrich raise money. Lien is little-known in South Dakota politics, with scant experience and no established campaign-donor network.

So far, however, he is the only announced Republican candidate for a seat that party strategists know will be difficult and expensive to recover.

Other candidates?

State Rep. Shantel Krebs of Sioux Falls has taken out nominating petitions but hasn't decided whether she will run.

Krebs, a Sioux Falls shop owner whose husband, Mitch, is press secretary to Gov. Mike Rounds, said the need to raise $1 million or more wouldn't keep her from running.

She hasn't begun active fund-raising but said money is available.

"I've got people ready to write checks. I'm not too worried about the financial part of it," she said. "I have to decide if it's the right thing for the Republican Party, the right thing for the people of South Dakota and the right thing for me."

Lien had a good beginning in fundraising. In the first six weeks of solicitation, he took in more than $100,000. Although the list of individual contributors won't be available until Lien files his quarterly fundraising statement with the FEC, due by the end of the month, he said his contributions ranged from $25 to the $2,300 maximum allowed per individual.

Most of the money came from personal and business contacts across South Dakota, Lien said.

"I was very excited, obviously very humbled by it," he said of the $103,600 total. "The strategy was to contact as many people as I knew, with letters and phone calls, people from through the entire state. A lot of them are excited that we have somebody with a business background who's going to step up."

Lien is director of Pete Lien & Sons, the family mining and manufacturing business, although he is now focusing on the campaign full time. He also is a director on the South Dakota Chamber of Commerce and Industry Board and past chairman of the Ellsworth Task Force, which successfully worked with state and federal officials - including Herseth Sandlin - to keep the air base in operation.

Lien said he is organizing a campaign team and donor network in much the same way he might organize a business venture.

"I look at this as trying to put shareholders together for an investment. I'm just asking them to invest in South Dakota, the campaign and in me," Lien said. "It's a daunting task. Obviously, it's not fun to ask anybody for money. But if you believe in the cause, it makes it easier."

Rosenthal said $100,000 in six weeks was a "reasonable figure" that makes an early statement about Lien's campaign.

"I think what it really tells you is that he's a serious candidate. People are willing to invest in him," Rosenthal said.

"He's a successful business guy. He's family been in business in South Dakota for several generations. They've been involved in community activities. He's well-networked with people who have the ability to write larger checks."

But he and Jarding agree that the next $100,000 could be more difficult, since some of the best donors already have been tapped.

Jarding calls that first campaign money the "low-hanging fruit," because it often comes from close associates, friends and even relatives.

"Then, it gets harder. The next round is going to people who don't know you. That's the bigger test," Jarding said. "Then, your message has to carry it."

Don Frankenfeld understands the trials of generating the money to pay for a campaign. The Rapid City Republican lost to then-incumbent-Rep. Tim Johnson by a 2-to-1 margin in the 1990 U.S. House election.

Frankenfeld spent more than $200,000 in that campaign and incurred a personal financial burden along the way that took years to pay off.

"I liquidated my individual retirement account and borrowed against my house," Frankenfeld said. "If you're the challenger, you're faced with the necessity to be at least partially self-financing in your campaign."

Frankenfeld said Lien's early fundraising results were impressive, if the bulk of the money came from outside his family.

"If it's not his own money, I think it's a big deal," he said.

The fact that the Lien family has financial resources could become a factor in the campaign, Frankenfeld said.

"In candor, it (fundraising) is probably less important for somebody whose last name is Lien," he said. "He might lose the race, but he won't lose it because he can't afford it. I can't imagine that he can do this without throwing family money into it."

The family already has put some money into it. About a quarter of the $103,600 came from Lien family members, campaign spokeswoman Lynn Kendall said.

"I think that's something he's very proud of," she said. "If his family isn't willing to sacrifice for the campaign, he wouldn't expect other South Dakotans to contribute."

Lien and members of his family are prepared to make further personal contributions to provide the campaign with the resources it needs to compete, Kendall said.

"What we're focusing on now is grass-roots organizing and fundraising and seeking support of people of South Dakota," she said. "Chris believes in what he's doing, and he will contribute."

The idea that a competitive U.S. House campaign might cost a challenger $1 million or more isn't intimidating, either, Kendall said.

"We've heard all kinds of figures," she said. "But Chris is willing to do whatever it takes."

Rosenthal said that in the money game, Herseth Sandlin will be difficult to match.

"She can go out and raise another million dollars in three months. He doesn't have the ability to do that," Rosenthal said. "I think anybody would agree that she's wildly the favorite."

Lien agrees, but also said he is not intimidated by the powers of incumbency or the personal and financial challenges of the upcoming campaign.

"I wouldn't be in this if I didn't think I could win," he said.

Mutual respect

That's the popular underdog mantra, of course, a mix of political resolve and wishful thinking. It's usually proven wrong at the polls, where U.S. House incumbents almost always win.

But Lien contends that "usually" and "almost always" still leave room for upsets. So he begins with hope and a decent financial base in a campaign that could end up against an incumbent he knows and respects.

"I've had numerous chances to meet her, working with her on the Ellsworth issue," Lien said. "She and I have a great mutual respect. I think we get along great. This campaign will be about views and ideas."

It'll be about money, too, lots of it. Frankenfeld said Lien has just scratched the surface of a long-term, arduous excavation of campaign donations. His financial success there will determine his chances of accomplishing a political mission that is nearly impossible.

"If he can raise a million dollars, I think he's got a good chance. I'm not saying he would beat her, but he'd have a viable campaign," Frankenfeld said.

"It's a sad reflection on our political system that instead of knocking on doors and making speeches, a challenger has to spend the bulk of his or her time making phone calls and raising money. That's the major task of a campaign."

Contact Kevin Woster at 394-8413 or kevin.woster@rapidcityjournal.com