YANKTON - According to Ralph Brown, economics professor emeritus at the University of South Dakota, the United States is in a recession.

But so far, Brown says, South Dakota is not feeling the full brunt.

In remarks on Wednesday, Brown said non-ag employment indicates the U.S. is in a recession.

"A couple years down the road when (economists) try to date the recession, we will probably say it began in January 2008," he said. "Cumulatively, as a country, we have seen about 1.2 million people that have lost their jobs to date. In the next couple of months, that number will probably move to 1.5 million people who have lost their jobs since December 2007."

Brown said the impacts of a recession typically are less severe in South Dakota.

"During the recession of 2001, we did see some impact," Brown said. "Employment that normally grows at about 2 percent per year did decline. More recently, we have not seen any decline in the state; in fact, we have record levels of employment in South Dakota.

"Also, the ag sector runs almost opposite of the national economy. Additionally, Sioux Falls has been a real engine in driving our economy and they are very service-oriented in the health care and credit card industries. They are (industries) that tend not to move up and down as much."

Brown says South Dakota is not a poor state. It ranks about 15th in the nation in disposable per-capita income, factoring in the low cost of living.

Brown said he thinks the national economy probably will get a lot worse.

He said the recession is global, the housing sector is a drag on the economy and that the deficit will exceed $1 trillion, - more than 8 percent of the gross national product.

But lower oil prices, swift action on the financial crisis, a large amount of liquidity in U.S. banks and a proposed fiscal stimulus package should help negate the recession's effects, he said.

"The bottom line is the U.S. and global economies will contract the rest of 2008, most of 2009 and a modest recovery will start in 2010 and 2011," he said. "But, that is the forecast today, check back again tomorrow. This forecast is gloomier than it was even a month ago."

Brown said the key to get the recovery going is to get the banks lending again. "That puts money in the economy."

He said businesses will need to find ways to reduce expenses.

"Some (businesses) are going to have to lay off people, which is the downside. But for them to stay in business, they are going to have to do that," Brown said. "One thing you can control is your expenses until things recover.

"This is a fundamentally rich country with tremendous amounts of capital. The labor force is fairly well educated and trained. There is a lot of technical know-how. Entrepreneurship is still a strong force in this economy. Those are the things that, in the long run, will keep this a rich economy."