With the next general election in South Dakota 16 months away, the Republican Party already has a clear lead on the Democrats in the most important part of the governor's race: candidates.

The GOP has four. The Democrats have none.

Lt. Gov. Dennis Daugaard of Garretson, state Sen. Dave Knudson of Sioux Falls, Brookings Mayor Scott Munsterman and Buffalo Gap rancher Ken Knuppe officially filed and hit the campaign trail months ago. The perceived front-runners in that race, Daugaard and Knudson, have already raised more than $1.5 million between them.

And they're just getting up a head of fundraising steam in the money race likely to bring in $2 million to $3 million for the GOP primary alone.

And the Democrats? They're still waiting for Stephanie.

U.S. Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin still hasn't announced whether she will run for re-election to the House or seek the governor's chair in 2010. A third possibility, challenging Republican U.S. Sen. John Thune, is still mentioned in Democratic circles, but not with much conviction.

The time frame for Herseth Sandlin's announcement is almost as much a topic of conversation as her ultimate decision. Most insiders suspect it will be another House run, but they also say she is clearly considering the governor's race.

But since she hasn't said yet and may not until the end of summer, Democrats with designs on the governor's race - state Sen. Scott Heidepriem of Sioux Falls, in particular - are frozen in the starting blocks rather than off and running to build campaign organizations and raise money.

Jon Schaff, a professor of political science at Northern State University in Aberdeen, said that could be a problem for the Democrats.

And it's especially important in a year without an incumbent Republican governor or clear-cut successor, when a well-funded Democrat might make the race competitive.

"Her taking so long is important to the extent that it keeps other candidates waiting, which shortens the time they could use for fund raising," Schaff said. "It is true that early money is key for candidates, as it gives the impression that one is a credible candidate, making it easier to raise money down the line."

Schaff said the time frame won't be a problem for Herseth Sandlin if she decides to run for governor. As a successful incumbent in the House, she can expect help from throughout the state and nation, including the national Democratic Party and supportive political action committees. But things will be more complicated for lesser-known Democrats.

For someone other than Herseth Sandlin, "A Democrat announcing late for governor, on the other hand, is going to have a tough time getting funding to run against any of the Republican frontrunners, particularly Daugaard and Knudson, who seemed to have already raised significant cash," Schaff said.

But when is late? Former Republican state Sen. Don Frankenfeld of Rapid City thinks Democratic hopefuls other than Herseth Sandlin are already hampered by the shortening time frame. Frankenfeld speaks from experience on statewide campaigns. He ran in the 1986 Republican U.S. House primary against Heidepriem, former state legislator Ron Volesky of Huron - both Republicans at the time - and Spearfish businessman Dale Bell, who won. Frankenfeld was the Republican House nominee in 1990, losing to incumbent Democratic Rep. Tim Johnson in the general election.

It took two years to prepare for the 1990 election, Frankenfeld said.

"And I think I needed two years. My circumstances were a bit different because I knew I'd be running against an incumbent who already had huge name ID advantages," Frankenfeld said. "But if he runs, Scott (Heidepriem) is going to start as a well-qualified underdog. And I think he'll need all the time and all the money he can get in order to be a credible contender."

Each passing day is lost time and money, said Frankenfeld, who considers Heidepriem a friend but hasn't decided whom to support in the governor's race.

"Early money is like yeast," Frankenfeld said. "I can't remember who said that, but it's certainly true. Money leads to more money."

Heidepriem refuses to criticize Herseth Sandlin for not yet making her plans known. He says only that Herseth Sandlin has "earned the right to take as much time as she needs." But some of his supporters say he is frustrated by the delays and increasingly worried that the viability of his own campaign is beginning to fade with each passing week or month.

Two Democrats with experience in statewide campaigns reject that notion. State Rep. Bernie Hunhoff, a Yankton magazine publisher who ran unsuccessfully against Republican Gov. Bill Janklow in 1998, said he hasn't heard any grumbling by other Democrats about delays by Herseth Sandlin. And Hunhoff doesn't think it's a problem.

"Since Democrats are not facing an expensive and divisive primary, I don't see an autumn start for Scott or Stephanie as a big issue," he said. "South Dakotans are not fans of long campaigns. Today, I imagine both of them are looking at the political and governmental landscape and weighing what they each have to offer in the governor's race. That's an important but private process that pays dividends throughout the campaign."

Ron Volesky has been going through that process himself and says he will "very likely" be a candidate for governor in 2010. It won't be his first statewide race. Volesky served six years in the state House as a Republican before switching parties and serving eight more years in the House and two in the Senate as a Democrat. He has run twice for state attorney general and once for governor.

He doesn't think Herseth Sandlin is clogging the candidate process for his party.

"I respect Stephanie's position. Whatever her time table is, that's fine with me," Volesky said. "She's been a great leader in Congress, and I respect the fact that her time table is her time table."

The time table also affects potential Democratic candidates for the House, should Herseth Sandlin decide on a governor's run. That process also is on hold.

Herseth Sandlin declined an interview request by the Journal for this story. But her staff denies that she is unduly delaying the Democratic candidate process. They also reject the assertion that Herseth Sandlin has extended her time frame for announcing.

Herseth Sandlin told reporters last fall that she wanted to get through the November election and have her first child before considering the 2010 decision. That led to speculation that the decision would come early in 2009.

Herseth won reelection on Nov. 4 and gave birth to her son, Zachary Lars Sandlin, on Dec. 15.

But the announcement that was expected to follow in relatively short order about her 2010 plans remains a mystery. Herseth Sandlin spokesman Russ Levsen said people presumed too much.

Herseth Sandlin was focused on her job, her pregnancy and the 2008 election through the end of the year, Levsen said. Only in 2009 has she begun to seriously look at 2010, even as she has been busy with important congressional issues, he said.

"Stephanie has consistently said, since she began giving it serious thought in 2009, that she'd announce her plans for 2010 by the end of summer," Levsen said. "And she remains committed to that time frame."

Her announcement could come during the August congressional recess. But even that's not certain, since "summer" officially lasts through Sept. 21

Whatever the actual date, some Democrats believe that the extended time frame pushed one of their potential candidates for governor to change plans. Sioux Falls banker Mike Huether was seriously considering the governor's campaign earlier this year but has recently announced plans to run for mayor of Sioux Falls.

It's a challenging race and an intriguing job, given the fast growth of the state's largest city, now at more than 150,000 people. Huether said he is excited about the campaign.

But he also said the open governor's seat next year with the potential for a pitched, expensive primary battle between Republican candidates offers Democrats an important opportunity.

"It's just that the timing for me, the city and my family worked out perfectly for the mayor's race," Huether said.

When asked if delays by Herseth Sandlin led him to choose the mayor's race, Huether paused long before answering. Then he said it was important for the Democrats to have a strong candidate in the governor's campaign, a response that he admitted avoided the question.

When asked again whether he decided to run for mayor because of Herseth Sandlin's delayed decision on the governor's race, Huether again paused.

"I'll say this: This is such an important election, if you're really serious about attempting to occupy that valuable office, you've got to start right now," he said. "It's going to take organization. It's going to take you being visible across all of South Dakota. It's going to take a lot of money to ultimately win. And I don't know how you can do that unless you start right now."

Contact Kevin Woster at kevin.woster@rapidcityjournal.com or 394-8413.