The Black Hills region could get some drought relief for the next six or seven weeks, but the moisture outlook for the rest of the spring and summer is not promising.

That's the conclusion of experts at the National Weather Service in Rapid City and at South Dakota State University in Brookings.

A La Nina condition is still holding, although weakening, in the Pacific Ocean, according to NWS meteorologist Lee Czepyha in Rapid City. Typically, that means near-normal precipitation and temperatures in April and the first half of May for this region.

"Then, it starts to get hot and dry somewhere around the middle of May," Czepyha said.

Czepyha said the weather service is forecasting La Nina to continue. La Nina occurs when there is colder than normal water in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean off South America.

La Nina is being blamed for record heavy rains and flooding in the Midwest, Northeast and parts of Colorado and Idaho.

But Rapid City is running behind average precipitation already for 2008, with 1.08 inch of precipitation since Jan. 1, as of March 20, compared with the normal average for the year to date of 1.73 inches.

Dennis P. Todey, state climatologist at SDSU, said he wasn't predicting with certainty that the drought will continue this summer, but he said the most recent outlook indicates a slightly increased chance of below-average precipitation for all of South Dakota for the summer.

"A continuation of dry conditions is certainly a good possibility," Todey said.

Most of western South Dakota, except for the northern Black Hills, remains in moderate to severe drought, Todey said. The Northern Hills have had good snowfall this winter.

Todey said the outlook for temperatures this summer is less clear, but he said there are indications that temperatures will be warmer than average in Wyoming, which could have an impact on the Black Hills.

Todey said the dry conditions likely will be felt statewide this year.

Much of the West River region has been in drought for most of this decade. Todey said Rapid City generally has had below-average precipitation for the past eight years.

He said even for areas such as north central South Dakota, which received normal precipitation last year, the cumulative effect is still a shortage of moisture.

"Even a near average one year doesn't really make things better," Todey said. "You need two or three of those with one of those an above-average year."

In the short term, the storm pattern is a "little more active" now, he said. "There are some storms coming through. But I don't know if any of them look like major precipitation producers right now," Todey said.

Contact Steve Miller at 394-8417 or steve.miller@rapidcityjournal.com.