South Dakota, which hasn't given its electoral votes to a Democratic presidential candidate since 1964, likely won't break that streak this year, according to the results of a new independent poll.

Republican Sen. John McCain led Sen. Barack Obama 48 percent to 41 percent in a poll conducted last week among 800 South Dakota registered voters.

The random telephone poll, conducted for Argus Leader Media and KELO-TV of Sioux Falls by Mason-Dixon Polling and Research of Washington, D.C., has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

Obama's state campaign chairman, Matt McGovern, would not comment, saying the campaign typically doesn't talk about poll numbers.

Tom Steward, regional spokesman for McCain, said his campaign is working hard and taking nothing for granted.

He said Obama "just doesn't sync up with most South Dakota voters. It's a pattern we're seeing in other Western states."

People in the West want a candidate who supports gun rights, low taxes and a balanced energy policy that includes domestic resources, according to Steward.

McCain's lead is smaller than the final margin in the two most recent presidential elections in South Dakota, when George W. Bush defeated his Democratic opponents by more than 20 percentage points.

The poll is a snapshot, said Rick Hauffe, South Dakota Democratic Party executive director, said the McCain campaign is collapsing nationwide. South Dakota could be in play by Nov. 4, he said.

"I think whoever wins South Dakota - and it could be either one of them - will win by about 2 points," Hauffe said. "I think there's a chance now that Obama can take South Dakota."

Obama lost to Sen. Hillary Clinton in South Dakota's June primary.

"I don't think Obama is going to win South Dakota, but I think it's going to be closer than people think," said Gary Aguilar, an associate professor of political science at South Dakota State University.

Polling in the presidential race could be more difficult than in past years due to an expected increase in young voters and other groups that don't vote at high levels, he said. It all depends on voter turnout, Aguilar said.

"I wouldn't be surprised if Obama won by 20 percent or lost by 8 percent" nationally, Aguilar said. "This one is just so wild, it makes it difficult to predict what's going to happen."

McCain leads in western South Dakota 55 percent to 36 percent, and in the southeast, his lead was 52 percent to 37 percent.

Obama led 47 percent to 40 percent in the northeast and in the Sioux Falls metro area 47 percent to 32 percent.

Fourteen percent of Democrats polled said they support McCain.

Hauffe said he doubts there are many disaffected Clinton supporters now backing McCain. Instead, he thinks McCain's support comes from anti-abortion Democrats.

Fifty-one percent of respondents had a favorable opinion of McCain, with 30 percent unfavorable. Forty-two percent had a favorable opinion of Obama, and 39 percent had an unfavorable opinion.