RAPID CITY - Cabela's officials are on "pins and needles" waiting for Tuesday's land transfer vote that will allow the company to build a store in Rapid City.

"We still want to believe that people will get the facts - which we've been trying to get out there - and they'll vote yes," Tim Holland, Cabela's new store development director, said.

Rapid City voters will decide Tuesday whether the city can transfer 30 acres of land north of I-90 where the Black Hills Visitor Information Center is located to the Rapid City Economic Development Foundation, which then would transfer the land to Cabela's.

One question on many voters' minds is whether Cabela's will still build if voters reject the land transfer. Some critics have argued that they will.

But Holland said absent some other subsidy that makes Cabela's business model work, the store won't be built.

"If this deal goes away, and it's not subsidized by another mechanism, we will not build a store there," he said. "To say we're going to come to Rapid and lose money because we all want to be there is not correct."

In other words, if the 30 acres is removed from the deal and another incentive of similar value is not provided, it won't be financially feasible for Cabela's to build their store in Rapid City.

Holland said Cabela's business model doesn't work without a subsidy package.

"We're not an arrogant company. We're not out there beating our chest, and we're just not real aggressive," he said. "But to say that we're not coming, to throw that out as a threat - we do not want to threaten anybody. That's not our intent at all."

The land transfer is part of three agreements the council approved in June as an incentive package to lure outdoor outfitter Cabela's to Rapid City.

Cabela's wants to build an 80,000 square foot store less than a mile west of the VIC as part of a larger Foursquare Properties retail center on 67 acres near Dyess Avenue and East Mall Drive.

Other parts of the Cabela's incentive package included $2 million in economic development funds and moving the VIC inside the new Cabela's.

Those agreements are not part of the special election, and moving the VIC is off the table entirely since Cabela's officials told the city the company would deed back the building and about 3 acres of surrounding land to the city.

Mayor Alan Hanks says Cabela's will be good for Rapid City because of the millions of dollars in sales taxes and property taxes that will be generated from the store and the other development that will surround it.

Hanks said Cabela's and the larger Foursquare Properties development combined will bring an additional $4 million per year in sales taxes and an estimated $1.4 million a year in new property tax revenue.

Elected officials always look for ways to pay for the services citizens want, Hanks said, because Rapid City's budget relies heavily on sales taxes. Cabela's provides an opportunity to increase both its sales tax base and its property tax base, he said, which means the city can provide more and better services.

"To me, it's exactly what we are always talking about when we talk about economic development," Hanks said. Opponents have expressed a variety of reasons for opposing the deal. Initially, it was moving the VIC. Other reasons include opposition to "corporate welfare," a desire to keep the land until a better deal comes along and a skepticism about the level of economic benefits that the development will bring.

Don Frankenfeld, a member of the "No Free Lunch" committee, said members have many different opinions about the deal and don't speak with one voice, but he believes the incentives don't pencil out as an economic development deal.

"There's no possibility they're going to generate $4 million in new money. It cannot happen," he said.

The city values the land at $3.7 million, but Frankenfeld believes it's probably closer to $5 million. Add the $2 million in economic development funds the city is providing, which is not on the ballot, and the total incentive package is $7 million.

Frankenfeld said it's speculation to say Cabela's and the other proposed development will generate $4 million and supporters are incorrect to say it "will" happen.

"I say that's speculative and shouldn't be included in the economic analysis because it's not at all clear it's going to happen," he said. "The proponents are claiming $4 million in aggregate. That's $200 million in retail. That's suggesting in essence that all the new retail will be as productive as Cabela's itself in terms of sales per square foot."

Frankenfeld said without an appraisal the actual value of the 30 acres is unknown. That means everyone is guessing about the size of the subsidy.

Regardless, Frankenfeld doesn't believe the benefit comes close to meeting the value of the incentive.

Though Cabela's says its annual average sales per store is $60 million, Frankenfeld believes the Rapid City store's sales will be closer to $30 million. At that level, the city would get about $600,000 a year in sales taxes.

But only a part of that number will be new dollars, according to Frankenfeld. He estimates about half of the store's sales will be a shift -- shoppers will spend money at Cabela's instead of another store -- and the other half will be new dollars from outside the community.

The same concept applies to jobs. Frankenfeld said not all the 150 jobs can be considered new since many of them, perhaps half, will be workers who leave an existing job with a competitor.

"The bottom line is $7 million for Rapid City is a lot of money. It should be used carefully and productively to stimulate economic development. This doesn't meet that test," he said.

Cabela's will provide about 150 new jobs, but Hanks said people should also consider the jobs that will be created in the entire Foursquare development.

"Some people say, 'Gee whiz, it's only 150 jobs.' That's 150 jobs in Cabela's. Cabela's is 80,000 square feet out of 600,000 square feet of retail that's going in out there. So you're not talking about 150 jobs, you're talking hundreds and hundreds of jobs," Hanks said.

Holland said the $4 million annual sales tax number is based on the entire Foursquare development, not just the single Cabela's store, and comes from sales figures submitted to Foursquare from businesses interested in locating near Cabela's.

Holland said until negotiations are completed and contracts are signed, he can't reveal the specific businesses but that there are multiple parties interested.

Right now, the developer has the luxury of picking and choosing which businesses would best complement Cabela's, he said.

"It's based on really good history and information of how those stores perform elsewhere," Holland said of the sales tax estimate.

In general, the types of businesses that tend to move near Cabela's include restaurants, lodging and other major retailers, he said.

"I can tell you all but one of the businesses we're talking to would be new to the market. So it's not just somebody moving (from an existing location in the market)," Holland said.

The kicker for Hanks and other supporters is the city will be repaid in full, with interest, for the value of the incentive package. The city has created a tax increment financing district that will use the developments' property taxes to pay the city back.

With the TIF, the value of the land and the $2 million paid to Cabela's upfront will be paid back by the property taxes the development generates when it's built. Without the TIF, taxpayers would not recover that value.

"That's very unique when it comes to economic development," Hanks said. "The city gets to pay itself back for the incentive package that creates all this. How often do you have an opportunity to come forward with an incentive package and have a way where you actually pay yourself back with interest? Virtually never."

Polls for the special election will be open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. on Tuesday, Sept. 18.